Eesti Energia Group Unaudited Results for Q3 2026

Sales Revenues and Profitability

Eesti Energia Group's sales revenue in Q3 2026 totalled EUR 389 million, a 38% increase year-on-year. Group EBITDA more than doubled to EUR 60 million (Q3 2025: EUR 28 million). The Group earned a net profit of EUR 1.6 million, compared with a net loss of EUR 66.0 million in Q3 2025, which included an impairment of shale oil production assets of EUR 39.0 million. For the first nine months of 2026, sales revenue increased by 12% to EUR 1,329 million, EBITDA increased by EUR 16 million to EUR 235 million, and net profit increased by 36% to EUR 42 million.

All five of the Group's segments increased sales revenue year-on-year, and three of five increased EBITDA. Shale oil made the largest contribution to EBITDA growth, driven by record production following the start of the new Enefit 280-2 oil plant, higher fuel market prices and last year's low base. Renewable energy and electricity sales improved on the back of the integrated electricity portfolio, and distribution again delivered stable growth. The decline in other products and services reflects the expected normalisation of frequency services after an exceptional Q3 2025.

Q3 2026 results were compared against a very low base, as the Auvere power plant and the Group's oil plants were undergoing major maintenance in Q3 2025. The average price in the Nord Pool Estonia price area was EUR 59.1 per MWh, a 9% decrease year-on-year and broadly in line with Q2 2026, while prices in Latvia and Lithuania both rose by 25%, primarily due to the transmission constraint between Estonia and Latvia. Estonian prices were on average EUR 21.4 per MWh higher than in Finland, with the spread narrowing by EUR 3.1 per MWh year-on-year. Around 35% of hours in Estonia cleared at or below EUR 20 per MWh, but the share of zero or negative price hours fell to around 1% from around 3% a year earlier, as additional battery storage was added to the grid.

Liquid fuel prices were considerably higher than a year earlier. The average Brent crude oil price was USD 91.2 per barrel (+34%) and the average price of fuel oil with 1% sulphur content was EUR 447.4 per tonne (+24%). Prices were driven primarily by elevated geopolitical risk premiums, supply-side uncertainty and expectations of stronger demand ahead of the heating season, although both declined from their Q2 2026 levels.

CFO Marlen Tamm commentary:

“The changes made across both the organisation and our business lines have contributed to the strong nine-month result. Our task is to make sure these changes keep paying off over the longer term, so that we can deliver good results even in volatile market conditions. To do that, we need to make even better use of our existing assets, manage costs deliberately, and assess for every investment what value it creates for both the company and its customers. Operating more efficiently gives us the ability to invest in a reliable network, in generation that strengthens energy security, and in energy solutions that meet customer needs.”

Renewable Energy and Electricity Sales Segment

Sales revenue from the renewable energy and electricity sales segment amounted to EUR 189 million in Q3 2026, a 24% increase year-on-year, supported by higher renewable generation and a higher average selling price. Renewable electricity generation was 480 GWh, up +30% year-on-year. Most of the growth came from wind farms, which generated 392 GWh, up +27%. Retail electricity sales volume was 2.0 TWh, a 4% decrease year-on-year, and broke down between markets as follows: Estonia 660 GWh (+13 GWh), Latvia 326 GWh (-50 GWh), Lithuania 617 GWh (+24 GWh) and Poland 415 GWh (-64 GWh).

Segment EBITDA increased by EUR 14 million to EUR 23 million, a 159% increase year-on-year. The total margin impact was a positive EUR 10.5 million, as average sales prices increased by EUR 29 per MWh while average variable costs rose by EUR 23 per MWh. Lower sales volumes reduced EBITDA by EUR 4.6 million, mainly due to lower electricity volumes sold to retail and business customers. Fixed costs increased by EUR 2.3 million, mainly related to recently added production capacity. Gain on derivatives contributed a positive EUR 9.6 million, reflecting a swing from a loss of EUR 1.4 million in Q3 2025 to a gain of EUR 8.2 million in Q3 2026. Other changes added EUR 1.0 million, mainly related to the change in value of derivative instruments and power purchase agreements for renewable energy.

Although the average electricity price in Estonia was lower than a year earlier, the segment's result improved. The large positive effect from margins and realised hedges reflects the integrated electricity portfolio, in which renewable generation, the retail client portfolio and energy trading operate as one unit.

Non-Renewable Electricity Production Segment

Sales revenue from non-renewable electricity production increased by 124% to EUR 34.5 million in Q3 2026, including EUR 14.9 million of reserve capacity fees. Electricity generation amounted to 199 GWh (+142 GWh, +251%). The increase reflects higher volumes of retort gas following the commissioning of the Enefit 280-2 oil plant, together with a very low comparison base, as Q3 2025 was characterised by large-scale maintenance works. Retort gas is a by-product of shale oil production. As oil output rises, so does the volume of retort gas that has to be converted into electricity straight away, because of its chemical properties.

Segment EBITDA decreased by EUR 4 million to EUR -10.7 million (Q3 2025: EUR -6.6 million). Variable profit declined by EUR 15.1 million, as volumes increased significantly while average margins remained negative. This is largely due to the retort gas which cannot be stored, so it has to be used for electricity generation as it is produced, including at the low market prices of the summer months. Fixed costs increased by EUR 2.2 million, mainly related to the change of inventories, and gain on derivatives had a negative year-on-year impact of EUR 1.6 million, reflecting a gain of EUR 1.6 million in Q3 2025 against none in Q3 2026. Proceeds from reserve capacity fees contributed a positive EUR 14.9 million and offset most of the negative impact.

Estonia continues to depend on oil shale power plants to ensure security of supply and cannot rely solely on cross-border transmission capacity. While keeping older plants operational is expensive, it is essential for supply security, and the reserve capacity mechanism, running at approximately EUR 60 million per year, now provides compensation for that service.

Distribution Segment

Distribution sales revenue increased by 7% to EUR 78.1 million in Q3 2026, driven by both higher sales volume and a higher average sales price. Distribution volume was 1.45 TWh, an increase of approximately 3% year-on-year, and the average distribution sales price rose to EUR 53.9 per MWh (Q3 2025: EUR 51.8 per MWh).

Segment EBITDA increased by 19% to EUR 32.7 million, an improvement of EUR 5 million year-on-year. The total margin impact was a positive EUR 3.1 million, reflecting the increase in the average sales price. Higher distribution volume added EUR 1.4 million, and fixed costs improved EBITDA by EUR 0.8 million as outsourced maintenance costs decreased. This is a deliberate efficiency gain, with more maintenance work performed by the Group's own staff and less reliance on outsourcing.

Distribution remains the most resilient part of the Group, and these stable profitability trends are expected to continue.

Shale Oil Segment

Shale oil sales revenue increased to EUR 55 million in Q3 2026, compared with EUR 11.6 million a year earlier, driven by both higher volumes and higher prices. Shale oil sales volume increased by 95.3 thousand tonnes to 132.7 thousand tonnes, an all-time record for the Group. Production amounted to 132.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 90.5 thousand tonnes or 215% year-on-year, reflecting the contribution of the new Enefit 280-2 oil plant and a very low comparison base, as the Group's oil plants were in maintenance in Q3 2025.

The average shale oil sales price, including the effect of realised hedging transactions, increased by 34% to EUR 414.5 per tonne. Excluding derivatives, the average sales price increased by 22% to EUR 424.1 per tonne. The bridge between the two is primarily realised hedging.

Segment EBITDA increased by EUR 24 million to EUR 18.3 million (Q3 2025: EUR -6.2 million). Higher sales volumes were the largest contributor, adding EUR 19.1 million, and the margin impact was a positive EUR 8.4 million, mainly driven by higher sales prices. Fixed costs increased by EUR 7.2 million, mainly related to the fixed cost component in change of inventories and reflecting last year's low base, when production units stood idle during the summer. Other changes added EUR 4.1 million, mainly relating to the change in value of unrealised derivatives, where a loss of EUR 4.0 million had been recorded in Q3 2025.

Approximately 35% of the next twelve months of planned production is hedged at current elevated price levels, and the Group continues to target favourable fuel oil prices to increase that ratio. The market direction is favourable for the Group, although prices were volatile within the quarter and it remains uncertain how long the current environment will persist.

Other Products and Services Segment

Sales revenue from other products and services increased by EUR 1.6 million (+5%) to EUR 31.6 million in Q3 2026. The segment comprises sales of gas, heat, frequency services, materials, industrial equipment and other items. The impacts of one-off transactions, research and development costs and a portion of the Group's overhead costs are also recognised in this segment.

Segment EBITDA decreased by EUR 7.4 million to EUR -3.1 million. Frequency services accounted for the bulk of the decline, with revenue down EUR 6.2 million and EBITDA down EUR 10.2 million year-on-year, as Q3 2025 included exceptional one-off results from this business line. Natural gas sales revenue increased by EUR 5.4 million and EBITDA by EUR 2.7 million, primarily because geopolitical tensions have pushed up global gas prices. Heat sales revenue increased by EUR 2.2 million and EBITDA by EUR 0.4 million. Other changes reduced EBITDA by EUR 0.3 million.

The Group indicated during the period of exceptional returns that frequency services profitability would normalise within a few quarters, and this quarter reflects that normalisation. Frequency services, which are essential for keeping the grid at a stable 50 hertz, remain profitable and an integral part of both the electricity system and the Group's income, albeit at more moderate levels.

Investments

Group capital expenditure in Q3 2026 totalled EUR 78 million, a 25% decrease year-on-year, in line with the Group's plans and previous commitments. Investments in the first nine months of 2026 amounted to EUR 195 million, a 39% decrease year-on-year.

Investments in the renewable energy and electricity sales segment decreased by 75% to EUR 7.9 million. Investments in non-renewable electricity production increased to EUR 26.7 million, of which EUR 24.4 million related to the new hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plant. The plant is being built at the owner's request, and the Group received a EUR 100 million equity injection for it in 2024. Distribution network investments amounted to EUR 31.1 million (-28%), including EUR 17.2 million for network maintenance and EUR 12.4 million for network connections. Shale oil investments amounted to EUR 9.1 million (+5%), including EUR 6.3 million on the new Enefit 280-2 shale oil plant, mainly related to final works. Construction of the plant is broadly complete and the plant is operating.

The heavy capital expenditure cycle of recent years is behind. The strategic focus is now on unlocking greater returns from the asset base already built.

Financing and Liquidity

As of 30 September 2026, Eesti Energia had EUR 644 million in total available liquidity, comprising EUR 344 million in liquid funds and EUR 300 million in undrawn liquidity loans.

Total debt excluding accrued interest amounted to EUR 1,634 million at the end of Q3 2026, and net debt stood at EUR 1,290 million, a decrease of EUR 123 million year-on-year. During the quarter, three loan facilities in the total amount of EUR 313 million were moved from Enefit OÜ to the parent company, Eesti Energia AS, which significantly reduced the share of Enefit OÜ loans in the Group's total loan portfolio from 50% to 31%. There were no other changes, except that Eesti Energia AS no longer has maintenance covenants. These were replaced with a “Loss of Credit Rating” clause.

The Group's net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 3.87x at the end of Q3 2026, compared with 4.07x at the end of Q2 2026 and 4.78x a year earlier. Eesti Energia's commitment to bringing this ratio back towards 3.5x is unchanged, supported by capital expenditure already down 25%, the reserve capacity fee running at approximately EUR 60 million annualised, the new oil plant operating at full capacity, and continued cost and efficiency work. The Group's financing policy remains aimed at maintaining investment-grade credit ratings. Debt maturities are spread across the coming years, with the latest EUR 300 million senior green bond maturing in 2031, and there are no near-term maturities that create refinancing pressure.

Current credit ratings (as of 5 November 2026)

Fitch: BBB-, Outlook: Stable

Moody's: Baa3, Outlook: Stable

Outlook

Eesti Energia expects sales revenue in 2026 to grow compared with 2025, supported by increased wind power and shale oil production capacities as well as reserve capacity fees. EBITDA is expected to remain stable compared with 2025, and investments are planned to decrease compared with 2025.

The key drivers behind this guidance are a) the full operational contribution of the recently launched Lithuanian wind assets, b) the strategic reserve power capacity fee of approximately EUR 60 million per annum, c) somewhat higher fuel, gas and electricity prices caused by geopolitical tensions, d) the launch of the new Enefit 280-2 shale oil facility, which increases production volumes, and e) additional efficiencies from integrating the retail client portfolio, renewable electricity assets and energy trading into one unit, enabling the Group to produce and sell more at lower cost.

On the investment side, the Group will continue to prioritise completing ongoing projects and ensuring system reliability through essential network upgrades, rather than starting new discretionary initiatives. The focus remains on strengthening the performance of existing operations, improving EBITDA and keeping capital expenditure under control.

Key Financial Information

Condensed Consolidated Interim Income Statement

Condensed Consolidated Interim Statement of Financial Position

Eesti Energia will publish its unaudited Q3 2026 results on 5 November 2026. The Q3 2026 interim report and investor presentation are available on Eesti Energia's website. An investor call discussing the Q3 2026 financial results will take place on 5 November 2026 at 11:00 London time, 12:00 Frankfurt time, and 13:00 Tallinn time. Please join the conference call using the following link: https://teams.microsoft.com/

Further Information:
Danel Freiberg
Head of Treasury and Financial Risk Management
Eesti Energia AS
Tel: +372 5594 3838
Email: danel.freiberg@enefit.com